Kerala and its 'Model': The stories within
An enquiry into historical, geographical, social, and cultural antecedents of the 'superior' economic outcomes that represent the Kerala Model
In the late 1990s, S. Irudaya Rajan and P. Mohanachandran (Estimating Infant Mortality in Kerala, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 34, No. 12 (Mar. 20-26, 1999), pp. 713-716) questioned the integrity of Kerala’s infant mortality numbers. In essence, what they said was that Kerala’s declining infant mortality (of infants more than seven days old) combined with a high stillbirth rate (of infant deaths below one week) presented a paradox which needed careful investigation. Like any true-blooded and proud Malayali, I too was offended.
A few years back, I went through the paper again. Wiser over the years, I found their arguments logical, well written and interesting, worthy of further inquiry. Google Scholar affords checking how often the paper has been cited. It indicates how influential the paper has been and whether it guided later research. Surprisingly, it was then cited by only one or two persons. This meant either that the subject lacked sufficient academic interest or that state machinery has not cooperated with further research on the subject. Either way, it meant that the paper’s findings went unchallenged. That during the ministry of 2016-21, the infant mortality made further dramatic decline from around ten to seven, while the next best state was somewhere in the 40s, has only strengthened my scepticism.
In the early months of the pandemic lockdown, I had doubts about the numbers coming out of Kerala. I put out a tentative article wherein I proposed that these indicators are affected by the Goodhart’s Law according to which the policy targets become ineffective over a period. Though framed in a monetary policy framework, I feel that good old former central banker’s law might hold good in other disciplines too.
After a court decreed compensation for the family of Covid-dead, many stood up to be counted as dead due to Covid. These numbers were added over a period in small lots. At the same time, the State claims to be number one both when the Covid numbers are the lowest and when it is the highest (others are not testing right). A major defence is that we are cheating less than others. I found the we-are-the-only-honest-state argument a bit hard to swallow.
I have since been trying to trace the origins of the Kerala Model and what the various factors contributing to the State’s ‘superior’ outcomes were. This article is the sum total of my present state of understanding.
Limited circulation of the article has already ruffled a few feathers among those who consider the Kerala Model as one of their ‘holy cows’. Time permitting and my interest not flagging, I might consider expanding this into a short monograph. I will also be glad if somebody else picks up the thread. In the meantime, critical and constructive comments that will take forward the discussion are welcome. Until better news arrives, I prefer to remain an agnostic as far as the ‘Kerala Model’ is concerned.